2024: Verkiezingen van de eeuw

In 2024, 4 billion people across 74 countries are casting their votes. Among these, the US Presidential, Senate, and Congress elections on November 5 are set to be the most market-moving.

The US Presidential election is shaping up to be a highly competitive race, with Kamala Harris slightly leading in national polls, while Donald Trump holds a marginal lead in swing states. The election's outcome remains uncertain, with potential implications for market volatility and economic policies. If Harris wins, we can expect a continuation of Biden's policies, which may support trade-related and clean energy stocks but could lead to corporate tax hikes. On the other hand, a Trump victory might benefit US stocks, the oil and gas sector, and the US dollar, but could negatively impact US Treasuries and trade-dependent equities.

With the US election less than one week away, we are pleased to share the exclusive thoughts of a series of leading experts on the potential impact of the election on markets, geopolitical landscape and economic policy. The thought leaders featured are:

Daniele Antonucci, Co-Head of Investment and Chief Investment Officer at Quintet Private Bank
Catherine Kress, Head of Geopolitical Research and Strategy at BlackRock
Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO
John B. Emerson, Vice Chairman, Capital Group International

Daniele Antonucci

Co-Head of Investment &
Chief Investment Officer

Watch the video with Daniele Antonucci

He discusses, among other things:

Formation of a government in the U.S.
Possible implications for (budgetary) policy and regulation
Market reactions and investment strategy

Watch the video with Catherine Kress (BlackRock)

She discusses, among other things:

Budgetary policy: How will Harris or Trump handle taxes and government spending?
Regulatory policy: Energy and technology will be central to both candidates.
Trade policy: Trump is expected to pursue some deregulation, such as oversight rules for banks; Harris may aim for an expansion of Medicare or price caps for medicines.

Watch the video with Libby Cantrill (PIMCO)

She discusses, among other things:

The relationships between the three political powers: the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate.
The main policy area in the coming period is that of taxes.
The rising government deficits in the coming years, which will require the U.S. to issue more government bonds.

Watch the video with John B. Emerson (Capital Group International)

He discusses, among other things:

The application of import tariffs and trade sanctions as an economic tool to reward or punish countries.
The different stance of Harris and Trump towards value-based alliances, such as NATO.
The conclusion is to remain invested: anticipating the expected policies of a Trump or Harris administration is risky.

2024: the Mother of All Election Years